Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-27 56456.515458 59800.654197 63151.142782 66757.176527 70525.835461 74345.509026 78506.852209
2024-11-03 51422.445217 56548.128759 61833.888176 67683.419632 73966.806719 80504.747024 87813.111182
2024-11-10 47824.220700 54164.368828 60851.575567 68412.725113 76706.279565 85508.201453 95537.598855
2024-11-17 44843.978178 52069.770229 59836.829669 68777.309509 78754.163423 89514.856279 101967.650173
2024-11-24 42191.783944 50086.049262 58714.926192 68804.218129 80232.865213 92732.184143 107390.154417
2024-12-01 40123.530356 48590.371074 57985.255438 69124.559966 81910.777506 96066.862189 112861.048361
2024-12-08 38166.230490 47088.679053 57128.434225 69186.721981 83196.909707 98881.942758 117686.349935
2024-12-15 36984.637081 46404.443793 57137.923431 70178.758063 85494.934619 102811.794375 123765.036164
2024-12-22 35294.907864 45028.963449 56259.191323 70058.861478 86438.077333 105134.986377 127960.991090
2024-12-29 34429.715066 44586.844540 56436.025269 71143.462908 88763.639995 109047.267161 134004.902097
2025-01-05 33438.109913 43938.325655 56320.618602 71839.929215 90600.260242 112371.334768 139359.854318
2025-01-12 32175.412592 42900.786822 55685.602372 71864.970001 91597.437974 114679.324129 143503.061422
2025-01-19 30840.724449 41738.607810 54872.291684 71656.559706 92310.571461 116663.839278 147298.669403
2025-01-26 30204.013748 41426.877726 55085.475928 72693.169830 94532.704254 120465.624295 153298.176498
2025-02-02 29490.750721 40985.684070 55111.053600 73476.451996 96432.479367 123878.211559 158843.429190
2025-02-09 28639.796494 40332.826681 54840.891829 73864.639870 97826.353717 126668.571402 163639.099182
2025-02-16 27676.853648 39498.424199 54308.527641 73893.562541 98750.768133 128871.689206 167716.006846
2025-02-23 26906.944236 38888.761606 54038.079153 74232.772483 100048.110004 131526.990445 172353.336034
2025-03-02 26061.359454 38148.719621 53572.742101 74298.594057 100982.356068 133723.115879 176424.502870
2025-03-09 25676.366704 38010.343821 53877.336530 75348.675594 103165.212042 137481.607628 182456.684456
2025-03-16 24826.246604 37213.711662 53293.404776 75221.773752 103825.869833 139324.333518 186097.146702
2025-03-23 24531.457210 37164.279301 53687.927331 76369.662781 106127.767829 143243.197691 192365.142506
2025-03-30 24089.487672 36895.596024 53777.498931 77106.663955 107894.926722 146490.670277 197803.521037